Trash Talk

The plastic industry, unfiltered A newsletter from inside the plant

EP03 · October 2, 2026 · From the podcast

Fifty percent on a bag. The tariff line belongs on the spec sheet.

On September 8, 2026, a polyethylene bag of US origin began paying 50% to enter Canada. Nothing about the bag changed. What changed is one line on a federal list, item 3923.21.90, and the rate printed next to it.

Illustration: a pair of glasses resting on a folded newspaper

The Take

We take no side in the trade dispute between Canada and the United States. We read the list, because a buyer of bags has to live with it.

On August 22, 2026, the United States began collecting 50% duties on about US$20 billion of Canadian goods, a sum the law firm BLG puts at C$27.6 billion. On September 8, Canada’s counter-tariffs took effect: 15, 25 and 50% on C$27.6 billion of US goods.

The mechanism is narrower than the headlines. A tariff is charged on a tariff item, one numbered line of the customs schedule. The list published by the Department of Finance Canada, updated on August 26, has a line for item 3923.21.90: sacks and bags of polymers of ethylene, other. The rate on that line is 50. It applies to goods of US origin.

Three things set the bill: the item number, the country of origin, and the list in force on the day the goods cross.

On our lines, none of this shows. An extruder does not know which country it is in, and a good bag is a good bag on both sides of the border. What changes is the paperwork.

Jim Owen, a Rabobank analyst, told Packaging Dive that “there’s probably a lot of confusion.” His reason: “We spent 30 years making this a well-oiled machine with free trade on plastic and molds and resins and additives.” For thirty years, origin was a detail nobody had to write down. A list by item turns it into a required field.

One limit. The line we read covers bags. Resin and film sit under other headings of the schedule, and we could not confirm whether they are on the list. We make no claim for them. Each product has to be looked up under its own number.

What this changes for you. If you buy bags or film that cross the border, a spec sheet with gauge, size and count is no longer complete. Three more answers belong on it, in writing: where the product was made, which tariff item is declared, and which list applied on the date of crossing. Ask before the quote. The list is public, and it is dated.

On the Line

Polyethylene rose 45 cents, then fell. The 10 to 12 cents were a request.

What happenedBy April 2026, polyethylene was up 45 cents a pound for the year, Plastics Technology reported. It fell about 15 cents in June, with 10 more expected in July. For August, producers sought 5 to 10 cents. On September 16, Dow’s chief financial officer told investors of a push for 10 to 12 cents in the Americas. Sources: Plastics Technology, June, September, Dow transcript.

Our readThe rise and the June drop are prices. The last figure is a request, and on October 2 we did not know whether it had settled. On our lines, the resin price changes one thing: what a pound of scrap is worth.

The federal registry asks for kilograms. A plant can prove kilograms.

What happenedSeptember 29, 2026 was the deadline to report 2025 data to Canada’s Federal Plastics Registry. The first phase covers producers of plastic packaging, electronics and single-use products. They report kilograms, by product category and resin type. A second phase, due the same day with more reporters, was postponed, and the rules for 2027 to 2029 were being reworked, two law firms reported in January 2026. Sources: Environment and Climate Change Canada, Blakes, McCarthy Tétrault.

Our readWe like the unit. On our lines, every roll and every case already goes on a scale. We could not confirm that garbage bags are in scope, and we do not claim it.

Used film got cheaper. Clean film stayed the hard part.

What happenedThe September bale report, published by Resource Recycling on September 9, 2026, put grade A film at 13.19 cents a pound, against 18.31 a year earlier. On September 4, the same publication reported that The Recycling Partnership had put roughly $6 million into eight end markets for film in California. Sources: bale report, SB 54 Unpacked.

Our readA cheaper bale is no cleaner. From the plant floor, film is the hardest material to recycle: light, dirty, and it wraps around sorting equipment. A recycled pellet can carry gels, and on a thin film a gel becomes a hole. Money spent on end markets is spent in the right place.

The Number

10%

The approximate share of California’s household flexible film that recycling end markets could absorb, Resource Recycling reported on September 4, 2026. The state generates roughly 550,000 tons a year. Our read: collecting more film changes little until someone can buy it. Source: Resource Recycling.

On Air

Cover of the TrashTalk podcast

EP03 · Plastic News of the Month, October 2026

About ten minutes on the news of September 2026: the resin roller coaster, fifty percent on a bag, the registry deadline, film recycling in California and the plastics treaty talks. One question runs through it: who is steering this industry.

Listen on Spotify

Three to Keep

  1. Canada’s counter-tariff list, in effect since September 8, 2026, carries polyethylene bags of US origin at 50%, under item 3923.21.90.
  2. Polyethylene was up 45 cents a pound for the year by April. Dow’s 10 to 12 cents of September 16 were still a request on October 2.
  3. California’s end markets could absorb about 10% of the state’s household film.

The TrashTalk desk

Every figure checked against public sources.

Sources